Preseason Rankings
Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#266
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.2#119
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#302
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 2.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 14.3 14.4
.500 or above 16.8% 43.6% 15.4%
.500 or above in Conference 41.3% 64.4% 40.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 18.1% 8.1% 18.6%
First Four0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 4.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.60.1 - 2.6
Quad 20.4 - 3.90.5 - 6.5
Quad 32.4 - 7.02.8 - 13.6
Quad 46.7 - 4.99.5 - 18.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 55   @ Central Florida L 57-72 5%    
  Nov 16, 2018 148   Georgia Southern L 69-76 26%    
  Nov 17, 2018 237   Towson L 68-70 44%    
  Nov 18, 2018 330   Incarnate Word W 75-69 68%    
  Nov 25, 2018 179   Florida Gulf Coast L 72-77 42%    
  Dec 01, 2018 299   @ Bethune-Cookman W 80-78 46%    
  Dec 05, 2018 272   Mercer W 68-67 60%    
  Dec 14, 2018 286   @ Arkansas St. W 74-73 43%    
  Dec 22, 2018 23   @ Miami (FL) L 61-80 3%    
  Dec 29, 2018 76   @ Illinois L 68-81 10%    
  Jan 03, 2019 187   @ UAB L 68-73 25%    
  Jan 05, 2019 157   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-71 21%    
  Jan 10, 2019 102   Old Dominion L 60-70 28%    
  Jan 12, 2019 301   Charlotte W 76-74 67%    
  Jan 17, 2019 99   @ Marshall L 75-85 13%    
  Jan 19, 2019 60   @ Western Kentucky L 67-82 7%    
  Jan 23, 2019 226   Florida International L 70-72 53%    
  Jan 26, 2019 226   @ Florida International L 70-72 34%    
  Jan 31, 2019 141   Louisiana Tech L 67-75 35%    
  Feb 02, 2019 163   Southern Miss L 67-73 41%    
  Feb 07, 2019 249   @ UTEP L 68-69 38%    
  Feb 09, 2019 158   @ Texas San Antonio L 72-78 22%    
  Feb 14, 2019 132   North Texas L 66-74 32%    
  Feb 16, 2019 323   Rice W 72-68 72%    
  Feb 23, 2019 226   Florida International L 70-72 53%    
  Feb 28, 2019 132   @ North Texas L 66-74 16%    
  Mar 06, 2019 141   Louisiana Tech L 67-75 35%    
  Mar 09, 2019 99   @ Marshall L 75-85 14%    
Projected Record 9.5 - 18.5 6.1 - 11.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.5 2.1 0.2 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.6 0.4 9.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 5.3 4.9 1.3 0.1 13.0 11th
12th 0.2 1.6 5.5 5.0 1.7 0.1 14.1 12th
13th 0.5 2.5 4.9 4.3 1.5 0.2 13.9 13th
14th 1.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.9 14th
Total 1.0 3.6 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.4 13.3 12.0 8.9 7.7 5.5 3.4 2.3 1.0 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 23.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-1 12.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-2 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.0%
10-4 0.0%
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.6% 14.6% 12.2% 2.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7%
13-1 1.0% 6.0% 6.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
12-2 2.3% 4.5% 4.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
11-3 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3
10-4 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
9-5 7.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.5
8-6 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
7-7 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-8 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
5-9 13.4% 13.4
4-10 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
3-11 9.1% 9.1
2-12 6.2% 6.2
1-13 3.6% 3.6
0-14 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%